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What an underground city on Mars or
the Moon might look like. This is Osowka.
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Space exploration is still being achieved at the expense and direction of national governments. It's so expensive that even the world's richest people, like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, are only building rockets they lease out to government space agencies for launching satellites and resupplying the International Space Station. We have not yet begun true independent space exploration.
Some people compare modern space exploration to the era of the great Spanish and Portuguese explorers who sailed around the world in the 1400s. We have a few differences between now and then. For me the greatest difference is the fact that we can see our nearest destinations. Columbus sailed west hoping to find a route to China. He ran into two continents he did not know existed. We've already sent probes to Mars and Venus and we have observed them both via telescopes for well over 100 years. There isn't much chance of discovering a mysterious planet between Earth and its two closest neighbors when we finally send colonists to them.
Colony missions are not simple. Even when only sending people to the New World, Europeans had to arrange for everything including food supplies. The early Virginia colonists faced starvation more than once even though there was abundant food all around them. One does not simply plant a few seeds and then thrive on a new planet. But that is how it must go for anyone who dares to move to Mars.
Despite a growing list of "private space companies", our economic interests are still tied directly to what we can do on Earth. Everything associated with the development of private space exploration today is focused on building and maintaining near-Earth orbital facilities and tools. We have a long way to go before the Interplanetary Space Yacht Company is founded.
The first step on private space exploration's expected timeline is near-Earth space tourism. It will be expensive and only available to the wealthiest of individuals. Most if not all of them won't want to leave their wealth behind. They'll experience a few hours' or days' worth of free fall in space and then go home. That's not a big step toward true space exploration, but it should lead to advances in environmental science. We need to learn more about how to survive in space if we're going to spend long periods of time zipping about the Solar System.
Private Companies Will Transport Goods and People
The first economic advantage for space exploration will undoubtedly be in transportation. Space shipping and passenger transportation are the obvious first choices. The companies that can launch regular service to Mars and back will be the companies that win the first round in private space exploration. Although many people are talking about sending one-use vehicles to Mars (such as supply ships), the long-term goal has to be reusable ships that can make multiple trips. We'll gradually build up a large fleet of transport vessels but that happens faster with a fleet of reusable ships.
The second economic advantage for space exploration will be in port facilities. We'll need orbiting platforms around both the Earth and Mars to facilitate long-term space travel. Naturally, facilities on the planet surfaces will also be required. Whoever builds and maintains the space ports will control the flow of goods and people between the planets. Port facilities are still part of the "transportation" phase. Today, China is building a huge network of "dry ports", railroads, and highways across Asia to make it less expensive for Chinese companies to deliver goods across Asia and Europe. I imagine that the first space ports will also be built and maintained by governments, just like the International Space Station.
Who Are These Space Colonists?
If we are planning for a future of private space exploration then we have to ask who will go to the Moon, Mars, and other worlds. And how will they pay for their trips? And what will they get from the exchange? It won't be enough to just go there. Everyone who travels to the Moon will have to have a reason to be there. Lacking free air and water, and covered with a dust that would fatally shred your lungs if breathed in, the Moon is a dangerous place. We'll have to take everything we need at first even if we can mine ice on the Moon for water and oxygen.
So what is the economic reason to develop a base on the Moon? In my mind, it will have to be for pure science at first. That means a government or a large consortium of corporations will have to pay for the first moon colony. There is no hope of economic return. We won't be shipping back magic moon crystals that make life on Earth easier even for the wealthiest people.
And when we go to Mars what will colonists do there? Of course there will be scientific exploration but the payback for science is often years or decades into the future. There will have to be a way for people to generate economic returns on Earth all the way from Mars.
Local Mining, Refining, and Manufacturing Will Come First
It makes sense. The first colonists on Mars will have to build cities. They'll have to mine and refine Martian resources. They'll have to shape those resources into basic materials for construction, infrastructure, and survival tools. Although we expect to use 3-D printers to manufacture many specialty items, the printers we have today require highly specialized raw materials. I think that, just to construct buildings on Mars, we'll have to dig for the right materials in the ground, process them, and then assemble Martian habitats. Hence, the first colonists will need to be miners, refiners, and construction workers.
These people will naturally require logistics support. They'll have to live in prefabricated huts and use expensive supplies shipped from Earth. At some point the first colonists will build a space farm. We don't know what that should look like yet. Maybe it will be covered by a glass dome. I think it's more likely the first Martian farms will be built underground and managed with artificial lighting. The plants will be grown in safe, consistent human-friendly environments. They'll also be protected from Martian dust storms and random space rocks (meteorites) striking the surface of the planet.
Digging underground habitats would make a lot of sense for the same reason. We won't have to build impossible-to-engineer meteor-resistant domes. We can land on Mars and start digging right away, building habitats, refineries, and factories as we go along.
Earth-based Companies Will Profit from the Travel
Anyone who wants to start a new life on another planet will have to pay for the trip there. I think people will sell all their possessions and pay for expensive one-way tickets to Mars. The tickets will include rights to claim and work a certain amount of land. They will need robots to help them because in the early days only wealthy people will make the trip. There won't be many day laborers.
And yet even in a world of one-way tickets to Mars there will be return trips. Business executives, government employees, and people with medical emergencies will need to return to Earth. Although I am sure hospitals will be among the first support industries to emerge on Mars, there will be people who cannot stay there and must return to Earth. So how would they pay for their return passage?
To me the logical answer is for a Martian colonist to sell his or her stake there to a new colonist on Earth. This way you can create a secondary real estate market very quickly.
Martian Industry Must Sell Mars
For an early Martian company to thrive it will have to raise funds on Earth. To do that they'll have to sell something of value. One opportunity might be for a company that pre-constructs a family-sized or small community-sized habitat. Imagine a large industrial company sends a team of engineers and robots to Mars. Their task is to build small, affordable, safe habitats. When the habitats are ready they are sold to colonists on Earth who move into ready-made farms and mines.
In other words, the first Martian colonists must draw new investment from Earth until Mars has an economy that creates wealth on its own. With enough people and resources devoted to economic activity a Martian colony can survive and thrive on its own. If the worst should happen, and a disaster overtake human civilization on Earth, a self-reliant Martian colony could continue. To reach that self-reliant stage, Mars must create economic opportunity for enough people to transfer their wealth and skills to the new colony.
A Self-Sustaining Martian Colony Need Not Be Large
Although scientists have estimated that thousands of colonists would be required to create a self-sustaining population, the truth is that smaller numbers of people might thrive on Mars. If even only a few hundred colonists develop the ability to make everything they need from local resources, a Martian colony could continue without Earth's help. We humans have few true needs: food, water, air to breathe, and safe shelter. As long as the colonists can acquire those things for a growing population, they will be okay.
That kind of world might look very different from the smart space habitats that artists draw. People might be forced to live in underground caves for centuries. They may have to gradually abandon technology as their old devices give out. They'll improvise new tools from what they can manage underground.
The trickiest part will be managing the air and lighting in underground habitats. Even today's best eco-friendly lighting technologies, LED bulbs and similar products, only last a few years before they have to be replaced. Martian colonists will have to build these kinds of items, and the tools to make them, if they are to survive without help from Earth.
The end result will doubtless look very different from what we imagine. Since we have yet to resolve all the challenges before us the journey is only just beginning. I should very much like to visit Mars one day, but I don't want to be a pioneer. I want to be a tourist who arrives safely, has a good time, and then goes home. I just have to live a little bit longer than expected to make that a reality.
